For the past three years, business has been lousy. I recently attended Print Outlook 2003 in Washington, and the predictions called for more of the same. Meteorologists use the phrase “more of the same” a lot, and I'm beginning to think economists follow that herd mentality too. It seems that when we're in a booming economy, everyone is optimistic, but when we're in an economic slump, the masses become pessimistic.

My trip to Washington was just as miserable as the forecasts we heard at the meeting — I boarded the plane just as a major snowstorm hit the Northeast, and thus sat for two hours on the runway. When I finally arrived at the conference, a number of attendees told me I did not miss much, considering the negative outlook presented by the speakers. One called this downturn the worst graphic-arts slump in recent memory. Another speaker, after decades of tracking the gross domestic product (GDP), suggested that the printing industry is no longer keeping pace with this market indicator.

REVIEWING PREVIOUS FORECASTS

I began to question the reliability of these economists. At Print Outlook 2000, not one of them predicted what the following three years would be like. (In all fairness, there was one person, Dr. Joe Webb, who had correctly forecast the current state of the economy. He was a principal at TrendWatch at the time, but he has since sold the company and is now sitting back and clipping coupons.)

So I thought I'd review what the speakers had said at the end of 1999 and how their forecasts had changed by the end of 2001.

Back in 1999, the talks were relatively positive. The headline in my Dec. 21 newsletter that year read, “Print Outlook forecasts growth.” Speakers did admit that while the printing industry had historically outpaced GDP growth, it would not continue to grow at the same rate as the GDP.

But the meeting was definitely upbeat. Projecting GDP growth of 4.2 percent for 2000, Michael Evans, head of the Evans Group (Boca Raton, FL) and an NPES (Reston, VA) consulting economist, had said, “Perhaps that sounds unduly optimistic. Nonetheless, our basic forecasting procedure says the economy will continue to advance at the same rate unless something changes.”

A year later at Print Outlook 2001, held in December 2000, things were just as rosy. My headline read “A Bumpy Road Ahead” (though the economists were still reporting growth for the coming year). Industry guru Frank Romano, now affiliated with RIT (Rochester, NY), offered, “The printing industry is alive and well and will continue to grow at one percent to two percent over the next 20 years.” He added, “We're going to see major changes in industry structure.”

He was right in the latter but way off base on his first prediction. (I guess that's why journalists take notes when the pundits are forecasting: We make them eat their words two or three years later.)

MAYBE THEY'LL EAT THEIR WORDS

NAPL (Paramus, NJ) chief economist Andy Paparozzi was also relatively positive in his 2001 forecast. After his presentation, I suggested that the slowdown he was predicting for the second half of 2001 had already begun in November 2000. Paparozzi later re-checked his survey data and discovered I was right: Optimism had, in fact, dropped precipitously in the month preceding his presentation.

As 2001 closed, virtually all the speakers had jumped on the bandwagon for 2002. Romano showed a slide that illustrated the domino effect caused by declining printing sales. As the slide accelerates, it puts pressure on equipment, consumable and paper sales, trade publications, associations, creatives, educators and consultants.

Even so, Print Outlook 2002 was not as gloomy as this year's meeting. Romano had said, “We are at a crossroads, not a dead end.” Both Evans and Paparozzi had reported a light at the end of the tunnel. Evans had warned, “You're in for a rough year,” and he's been right. But as I said before, the good news is that none of these doomsayers today even hinted at the economic slump we're currently experiencing. So maybe they'll be eating their words again next year.